Surprise, Arizona population is 175,304 as of July 1, 2025 (U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimate), ranking #154 nationally and #10 in Arizona. Cost of living runs 3.3% above the U.S. average (BEA RPP 2024); a family of four needs roughly $108,800/yr to break even (2025 modeled). This profile draws on 13 federal datasets covering population, housing, income, employment, climate, and risk.
At a glance.
2025 population
175,304
+7,702 in the last year
Top 1% of 19,483 U.S. cities
Census Vintage 2025
Cost of living
RPP 103.3
+3.3% vs US
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro · BEA 2024
Family-of-4 budget
$108,800/yr
+36% vs US
Modeled 2025 · federal sources
Median HH income
$96,711
+24% vs US
ACS 2020–2024 5-yr
Median home value
$435,100
+43% vs US
ACS 2020–2024 5-yr
2-BR fair-market rent
$1,839/mo
HUD FY2026 · 40th pct
Avg July high
105°F
NOAA 1991–2020
Gigabit broadband
84%
ISP-reported, FCC BDC
How many people live in Surprise?
175,304 people live in Surprise as of July 1, 2025 (U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025), the #154 largest U.S. city.
Source detail
2025 population
Source agency
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
Dataset
Census PEP
Vintage / period
Vintage 2025 (Jul 1, 2025)
Native geography
Census PEP subcounty place records for the included city universe.
Transformation
Copied from POPESTIMATE2025, joined by Census GEOID, and used for ranks, filters, and city pages.
Known limit: Annual estimate, not a decennial count; each new PEP vintage can revise the prior series.
Population grew 22.5% from the April 2020 base to mid-2025.
Vintage 2025 · annual estimates
Recent history (V2025 series, 2020 base → 2025).
2020 base: 143,150 → 2025: 175,304 (+22.5%)
Year
Population
Reference date
2020 base
143,150
April 1, 2020
2020
144,390
July 1, 2020
2021
149,570
July 1, 2021
2022
154,358
July 1, 2022
2023
159,171
July 1, 2023
2024
167,602
July 1, 2024
2025
175,304
July 1, 2025
Earlier history (2010–2019, prior Census vintage)
These figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2019 release — a separate, earlier methodology. They’re shown here as historical context only; the 2010 and 2019 values aren’t directly comparable to the 2020–2025 series above.
Population grew 20.6% from 2010 to 2019 (V2019 — see seam note below).
Surprise is the #154 largest of 19,483 U.S. cities and #10 in Arizona.
▸ Show the analyst detail (9 rows)
Measure
Value
Note
2020 base
143,150
April 1, 2020 census base
5-yr change
+32,154
2020 base → 2025; within V2025
5-yr change %
+22.5%
within V2025 only
1-yr change
+7,702
2024 → 2025 estimate
1-yr change %
+4.6%
within V2025 only
Density
1,586
people per sq mi, land only
Land area
110.5
sq mi (2025 Gazetteer)
U.S. rank by population
#154
of 19,483 cities
State rank by population
#10
of 91 in Arizona
What is the median household income in Surprise?
Median household income is 24% above the U.S. median ($96,711 vs $77,719); 8.6% live in poverty — 3.9 points below the 12.5% U.S. rate.
Median household income$96,711
US
Surprise: $96,711 — 24% above the US median of $77,719.
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of cities with ACS income data
Surprise
$96,711
United States
$77,719
Income and poverty estimates for Surprise from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year estimates (window 2020–2024). Every figure is shown with its 90% margin of error (MOE). Cells where the ± margin exceeds half the estimate are flagged "low precision." See methodology §12.
Measure
Estimate
± margin / note
Median household income
96,711+24.4% vs US
±3,521
Per capita income
41,888-3.2% vs US
±1,118
Population in poverty
8.6%
share of population for whom poverty status is determined
Median home value is 43% above the U.S. median ($435,100 vs $303,400); median rent is 51% above ($2,033 vs $1,348); price-to-income ratio is 4.5×, making it 1.2× as cost-burdened as the typical U.S. city (3.9×).
Median home value$435,100
US
Surprise: $435,100 — 43% above the US median of $303,400.
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of cities with ACS home-value data
HUD 2-BR fair-market rent$1,839/mo
US
Surprise: $1,839/mo — 71% above the US median of $1,077/mo.
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of cities with a HUD Fair Market Rent
Poverty (Census SAIPE 2024, model-based), unemployment (BLS LAUS 2024 annual averages), and remote-work share (ACS 2020–2024) for Surprise. Numbers are labeled at their native grain — place-grain when BLS publishes it, otherwise per-county. We do not compute population-weighted county averages. See methodology §13.
Measure
Value
Grain
Unemployment rate (annual avg)
3.3%
Surprise (BLS sub-state LAUS)
Civilian labor force
76,627
2024 annual avg
Worked from home
19.5%+39.3% vs US
share of workers 16+ commuting from home · U.S. median: 14% · ACS
County context — Surprise sits in Maricopa County:
County
Poverty rate
Median HH income
Unemployment
Maricopa County
10.4%
$90,919
3.1%
Top industries by private employment — NAICS supersectors rolled up from Surprise's linked county in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW, 2024 annual averages). See methodology §11.
#
Industry (NAICS supersector)
Private employment
Avg weekly wage
#1
Health care and social assistance (62)
335,894
$1,332 / wk
#2
Retail trade (44-45)
236,403
$955 / wk
#3
Accommodation and food services (72)
210,601
$625 / wk
#4
Administrative and waste services (56)
185,155
$1,079 / wk
#5
Construction (23)
174,553
$1,618 / wk
What workers earn in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro — top occupations by employment plus six curated benchmarks (registered nurse, software developer, elementary teacher, general manager, retail salesperson, truck driver). Wages are metro-area medians from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2025). See methodology §25.
General and Operations Managers is the largest tracked occupation in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro (81,520 jobs, median $98,610/yr).
▸ Show all 13 occupations
Occupation
Employment
Median annual
Median hourly
Customer Service Representatives
68,930
$46,410
$22.31
Home Health and Personal Care Aides
57,940
$36,930
$17.75
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
56,420
$44,950
$21.61
Fast Food and Counter Workers
54,900
$34,540
$16.61
Cashiers
48,660
$34,920
$16.79
Stockers and Order Fillers
42,650
$37,730
$18.14
Waiters and Waitresses
39,920
$47,530
$22.85
General and Operations Managers · benchmark
81,520
$98,610
$47.41
Retail Salespersons · benchmark
69,060
$35,960
$17.29
Registered Nurses · benchmark
53,700
$100,830
$48.48
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers · benchmark
30,480
$59,770
$28.74
Software Developers · benchmark
29,380
$131,750
$63.34
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education · benchmark
All items run 3.3% above the U.S. average (RPP 103.3); rents run 21.2% above (RPP 121.2) — the metro's housing premium is the main driver.
Cost of living (RPP, all items)RPP 103.3
US
Surprise's cost of living runs 3.3% above the U.S. average (RPP 103.3 vs 100).
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of metro/non-metro areas with a BEA price parity
BEA Regional Price Parity (all items)
RPP 103.3
+3.3% vs U.S. average · BEA 2024 · Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro
HUD Fair Market Rent, 2-BR
$1,839/mo
FY2026 · Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
State income tax (top marginal rate)
2.50%
flat · TY2025
Family-of-four monthly budget total
$9,067/mo
3BR rent + food + childcare + taxes + transport · federal sources
Single-adult monthly budget total
$4,945/mo
1BR rent + food + taxes + transport · federal sources
Local income tax
—
not applicable in Arizona · no modeled local income tax
Household budget figures are arithmetic floors using current federal sources at the grains documented in methodology. Not a recommended salary, not a poverty threshold, not a composite score.
7.0% foreign-born (U.S. median 14%); Spanish is the most-spoken language at home other than English (7.7% of residents 5+).
A quick read on Surprise's residents — nativity and languages spoken at home shown above, from the ACS 5-Year 2020–2024. The full demographic breakdown (age, race and ethnicity, household types, and educational attainment, each with its margin of error) lives on the demographics page.
These are K-12 public school districts. Higher education (colleges and universities) is not represented in this dataset.
Public school districts serving Surprise, from the NCES EDGE Geographic Relationship Files (GRF25, 2024–25 school year boundaries). The join is many-to-many — large cities often span multiple districts, and one district often serves multiple cities. Sorted primary district first. See methodology §12 for the consolidated-city fallback and Milford CT special case.
Source: NCES EDGE GRF25 · school year 2024–25 · methodology →
What is the climate like in Surprise?
Hottest month: July (105°F avg high). Coldest: December (40°F avg low). Annual precipitation: 8.0 in.
30-year climate normals (1991-2020) for Surprise from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. See methodology §15 for the gridded vs. station source path.
Average monthly highs & lows · 30-year normal (NOAA 1991–2020). Every number on this chart is an average.
bar = avg daily high → avg daily lowprecip in inches below each barprecip in millimeters below each bar
Composite risk score: 99.9/100 — Very High nationally; top hazard: Heat Wave (100.0).
Natural-hazard exposure for Surprise from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (FEMA NRI December 2025 v1.20.0). NRI is an expected-annual-loss composite calibrated on 1996–2019 historical losses, published at the U.S. county grain. See methodology §17.
County
NRI composite
Rating
Top hazards
Maricopa County
99.9
Very High
Heat Wave 100.0 Very High · Riverine Flooding 99.9 Very High · Wildfire 99.6 Relatively High
Source: FEMA National Risk Index · FEMA NRI December 2025 v1.20.0 · methodology →
How fast is home internet in Surprise?
15 non-satellite ISPs serve the area; 84% of locations have gigabit-capable service per ISP filings.
Fixed broadband availability for Surprise from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's Broadband Data Collection (BDC), as of June 30, 2025. Every speed and provider count below is an ISP-reported advertised maximum — not measured throughput. Actual delivered speeds typically run 60–80% of advertised. See methodology §16.
Measure
Value
Note
Providers serving this city
15 + satellite
distinct ISPs, excluding satellite-only
Fiber providers
11
offer fiber-to-the-premises somewhere in the BDC
Units with ≥100/20 Mbps fixed
100.0%
share of broadband-serviceable units, ISP-reported max
Locations with ≥100 Mbps upload
83.8%
derived: max(fiber ≥100/20, gigabit). Fiber is symmetric; gigabit is ≥100 up by definition
Units with ≥1 Gbps fixed
83.8%
share of broadband-serviceable units, ISP-reported max
Total broadband-serviceable units
74,886
residential locations in the FCC Fabric (not households)
Source: FCC BDC · as of June 30, 2025 · methodology →
How much crime is reported in Surprise?
In 2024, law enforcement reported 178 violent and 1,429 property offenses in the Surprise jurisdiction — a violent-crime rate of 109.1 per 100,000, below the U.S. estimate of 359.1.
Reported offenses known to law enforcement from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program (CIUS Table 8), 2024. Figures describe the FBI agency jurisdiction: Surprise — an FBI jurisdiction population of 163,202, versus the Census place population of 175,304. The rate per 100,000 is the FBI's own (count ÷ that jurisdiction population), never divided by the Census place figure. These are reported crimes under voluntary participation — not measured or victimization crime — and the FBI cautions against using them to rank or compare places. See methodology §31.
Offenses known, 2024
Count
Rate /100k
U.S. rate
Violent crime
178
109.1
359.1
Property crime
1,429
875.6
1,760.1
▸ Offense breakdown and 3-year trend
Offense, 2024
Count
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter
12
Rape
27
Robbery
18
Aggravated assault
121
Burglary
154
Larceny-theft
1,113
Motor vehicle theft
162
Arson (12-month reporters only)
12
Year
Violent /100k
Property /100k
Jurisdiction pop.
2022
118.1
1,403.4
154,128
2023
100.4
1,249.5
159,346
2024
109.1
875.6
163,202
Only years the agency reported a complete 12 months appear; the FBI does not estimate missing agency-years, so a gap is a non-reporting year, not zero crime.
U.S. rate is the FBI national estimate (imputes non-reporting agencies); the city figures are reported-only. Source: FBI UCR CIUS Table 8 (2022–2024) · FBI agency jurisdiction: Surprise · methodology → · FBI Crime Data Explorer →
In-state context.
Surprise sits at state rank #10 among 91 cities in Arizona. Nearby in the state ranking:
Just above in the profiled set: Shreveport, LA · #153 · 175,902 residents.
Just below in the profiled set: Fort Collins, CO · #155 · 171,500 residents.
Quick travel facts for Surprise
Quick travel facts.
Nearest commercial airport
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport(PHX) ·
30 mi 49 km from city centroid
Best months to visit
Nov · months when the avg high sits in 65–80°F and precipitation is at or below the city's median monthly precip
Sources: elevation from USGS Elevation Point Query Service (3DEP) · nearest airport from OurAirports CSV (FAA-aligned, type=large/medium, scheduled_service=yes) · best months derived from NOAA 1991-2020 normals · methodology →
Frequently asked questions about Surprise.
How many people live in Surprise, AZ?
Surprise has 175,304 residents as of July 1, 2025, making it the #154 largest city in the United States and #10 in Arizona. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025.
Is Surprise growing or shrinking?
Surprise has grown 22.5% since the April 2020 census baseline, adding 32,154 residents, including a 4.6% increase from 2024 to 2025. Source: Census PEP Vintage 2025.
What was Surprise's population in the 2020 census?
Surprise covers 110.5 square miles of land, with a population density of about 1,586 residents per square mile. Source: Census Gazetteer 2025.
What is the median household income in Surprise?
$96,711, about 24% above the U.S. median. Source: ACS 5-year estimates, 2020–2024.
SourceU.S. Census · PEP
VintageV2025
Reference2025-07-01
Place typeIncorporated place
GEOID0471510
Last build2026-07-02
Sources · provenance
Every listed dataset is used on this page.
The GEOID for Surprise is 0471510. These are the official datasets used by this profile's main data modules; click "methodology" for inclusion rules and the V2019 ↔ V2025 seam, or "source" for the raw publisher page. The headline population value above includes a source-detail disclosure with publisher, dataset, vintage, native geography, transformation, and caveat.
