Latest Census city estimates released May 14, 2026 · Population as of July 1, 2025 · Next city estimates scheduled for May 2027. Release schedule
Modesto, California population is 219,652 as of July 1, 2025 (U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimate), ranking #110 nationally and #20 in California. Cost of living runs 4.1% above the U.S. average (BEA RPP 2024); the four-person spending scenario corresponds to modeled gross income of $112,194/yr (TY2026 tax assumptions; partial scenario excluding unverified local income tax). This profile draws on 13 federal datasets covering population, housing, income, employment, climate, and risk.
219,652 people live in Modesto as of July 1, 2025 (U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025), the #110 largest U.S. city.
How big is Modesto?
Modesto covers 43.4 square miles of land and 1.8 square miles of water. Its population density is about 5,066 residents per square mile of land. Compare U.S. cities by land area →
Source detail: 2025 population
2025 population
Source agency
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
Dataset
Census PEP
Vintage / period
Vintage 2025 (Jul 1, 2025)
Native geography
Census PEP subcounty place records for the included city universe.
Transformation
Copied from POPESTIMATE2025, joined by Census GEOID, and used for ranks, filters, and city pages.
Known limit: Annual estimate, not a decennial count; each new PEP vintage can revise the prior series.
Population grew 0.5% from the April 2020 base to mid-2025.
Vintage 2025 · annual estimates
Recent history (V2025 series, 2020 base → 2025).
2020 base: 218,485 → 2025: 219,652 (+0.5%)
Year
Population
Reference date
2020 base
218,485
April 1, 2020
2020
218,691
July 1, 2020
2021
218,688
July 1, 2021
2022
218,574
July 1, 2022
2023
219,600
July 1, 2023
2024
220,315
July 1, 2024
2025
219,652
July 1, 2025
Earlier history (2010–2019, prior Census vintage)
These figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2019 release — a separate, earlier methodology. They’re shown here as historical context only; the 2010 and 2019 values aren’t directly comparable to the 2020–2025 series above.
Population grew 5.9% from the July 2010 estimate to 2019 (V2019 — see seam note below).
Modesto is the #110 largest of 19,483 U.S. cities and #20 in California.
▸Show the analyst detail (9 rows)
Measure
Value
Note
2020 base
218,485
April 1, 2020 census base
5-yr change
+1,167
2020 base → 2025; within V2025
5-yr change %
+0.5%
within V2025 only
1-yr change
-663
2024 → 2025 estimate
1-yr change %
-0.3%
within V2025 only
Density
5,066
people per sq mi, land only
Land area
43.4
sq mi (2025 Gazetteer)
U.S. rank by population
#110
of 19,483 cities
State rank by population
#20
of 483 in California
What is the median household income in Modesto?
Same-period U.S. benchmarks: household income $80,734 ± $166; per-capita income $44,673 ± $122. Margins are at 90% confidence. Comparison badges describe point estimates; they are not significance tests.
Median household income is 1% below the U.S. median ($79,891 vs $80,734); 13.3% live in poverty, 0.9 points above the 12.5% U.S. estimate.
Median household income$79,891
US
Modesto: $79,891 — 1% below the US median of $80,734.
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of cities with ACS income data; censored rows retained in the distribution
Modesto
$79,891
United States
$80,734
Income and poverty estimates for Modesto from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year estimates (window 2020–2024). Every figure is shown with its 90% margin of error (MOE). Cells where the ± margin exceeds half the estimate are flagged "low precision." See methodology §12.
Measure
Estimate
± margin / note
Median household income
$79,891-1.0% vs US
±$1,825
Per capita income
$35,523-20.5% vs US
±$922
Population in poverty
13.3% ± 1.1 percentage points
share of population for whom poverty status is determined
Median home value is 33% above the U.S. median ($442,700 vs $332,700); median rent is 20% above ($1,690 vs $1,413); the ratio of median home value to median household income is 5.5× versus 4.1× nationally; this compares two distributions and does not measure an individual household's housing burden.
Median home value$442,700
US
Modesto: $442,700 — 33% above the US median of $332,700.
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of cities with ACS home-value data; censored rows retained in the distribution
HUD 2-BR fair-market rent$1,758/mo
US
Modesto: $1,758/mo — 63% above the US median of $1,077/mo.
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of cities with a HUD Fair Market Rent
Same-period U.S. benchmarks: home value $332,700 ± $236; gross rent $1,413 ± $2. Comparison badges describe estimates and do not establish statistical significance.
Measure
Estimate
± margin / note
Median value, owner-occupied units
$442,700+33.1% vs US
±$4,972
Median gross rent
$1,690+19.6% vs US
±$33
HUD Fair Market Rent, 2-BR (FY2026)
$1,758-3.9% vs US
Modesto, CA MSA· 40th-percentile gross rent · HUD methodology
Owner-occupied share
58.9% ± 1.3 percentage points
of occupied housing units
Price-to-income ratio
5.5x± 0.14x approximate 90% MOE+34.5% vs US
median home value ÷ median household income · U.S. ratio: 4.1x
Rent-burdened (≥30% of income)
57.4% ± 2.7 percentage points+12.4% vs US
renters with a computed rent/income ratio · U.S. share: 51.1%
Severely rent-burdened (≥50%)
28.9% ± 2.2 percentage points+11.6% vs US
renters with a computed rent/income ratio · U.S. share: 25.9%
Poverty (Census SAIPE 2024, model-based), unemployment (BLS LAUS 2025 annual averages), and remote-work share (ACS 2020–2024) for Modesto. Numbers are labeled at their native grain — place-grain when BLS publishes it, otherwise per-county. We do not compute population-weighted county averages. See methodology §13.
Measure
Value
Grain
Unemployment rate (annual avg)
6.7%
Modesto (BLS sub-state LAUS)
Civilian labor force
101,752
2025 annual avg
Worked from home
8.4% ± 1.0 percentage points-44.1% vs US
share of workers 16+ working from home · U.S. share: 15.1% · ACS
County context — Modesto sits in Stanislaus County:
County
Poverty rate
Median HH income
Unemployment
Stanislaus County
14.2%
$77,812
7.2%
Top industries by private employment — NAICS supersectors rolled up from Modesto's linked county in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW, 2025 annual averages). See methodology §11.
#
Industry (NAICS supersector)
Private employment
Avg weekly wage
#1
Health care and social assistance (62)
37,308
$1,512 / wk
#2
Retail trade (44-45)
22,815
$838 / wk
#3
Manufacturing (31-33)
22,407
$1,537 / wk
#4
Accommodation and food services (72)
17,728
$542 / wk
#5
Construction (23)
11,085
$1,511 / wk
What workers earn in the Modesto, CA metro — top occupations by employment plus six curated benchmarks (registered nurse, software developer, elementary teacher, general manager, retail salesperson, truck driver). Wages are metro-area medians from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2025). See methodology §25.
Home Health and Personal Care Aides is the largest tracked occupation in the Modesto, CA metro (9,160 jobs, median $34,320/yr).
▸Show all 13 occupations
Occupation
Employment
Median annual
Median hourly
Home Health and Personal Care Aides
9,160
$34,320
$16.50
Fast Food and Counter Workers
6,700
$42,630
$20.50
Cashiers
4,890
$36,490
$17.54
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
4,810
$46,630
$22.42
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse
4,120
$37,850
$18.20
Stockers and Order Fillers
4,080
$41,320
$19.86
Teaching Assistants, Except Postsecondary
3,470
$47,990
—
Retail Salespersons · benchmark
5,140
$37,430
$18.00
Registered Nurses · benchmark
4,850
$132,590
$63.75
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers · benchmark
3,510
$58,330
$28.05
General and Operations Managers · benchmark
2,790
$104,330
$50.16
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education · benchmark
All items run 4.1% above the U.S. average (RPP 104.1); utilities run 52.3% above (RPP 152.3) — the metro's utility cost premium is the main driver.
Cost of living (RPP, all items)RPP 104.1
US
Modesto's cost of living runs 4.1% above the U.S. average (RPP 104.1 vs 100).
Scale: 10th–90th percentile of metro/non-metro areas with a BEA price parity
BEA Regional Price Parity (all items)
RPP 104.1
+4.1% vs U.S. average · BEA 2024 · Modesto, CA metro
HUD Fair Market Rent, 2-BR
$1,758/mo
FY2026 · Modesto, CA MSA
State income tax (top marginal rate)
13.30%
10 brackets · TY2026
Four-person monthly spending scenario
$9,349/mo
3BR rent + food + childcare + taxes + transport · federal sources; excludes unverified local income tax
One-person monthly spending scenario
$3,479/mo
1BR rent + food + taxes + transport · federal sources; excludes unverified local income tax
Local income tax
—
Unverified and excluded from the spending scenario; not a verified zero
Household budget figures are arithmetic floors using current federal sources at the grains documented in methodology. Not a recommended salary, not a poverty threshold, not a composite score.
19.1% ± 0.9 percentage points foreign-born (U.S. share 14.1%); Spanish is the most-spoken language at home other than English (26.9% of residents 5+).
A quick read on Modesto's residents — nativity and languages spoken at home shown above, from the ACS 5-Year 2020–2024. The full demographic breakdown (age, race and ethnicity, household types, and educational attainment, each with its margin of error) lives on the demographics page.
These are K-12 public school districts. Higher education (colleges and universities) is not represented in this dataset.
10 districts serve Modesto, from the NCES EDGE Geographic Relationship Files (GRF25, 2024–25 school year boundaries). The join is many-to-many — large cities often span multiple districts. Expand the list below to see every district sorted primary first. See methodology §12.
Source: NCES EDGE GRF25 · school year 2024–25 · methodology →
What is the climate like in Modesto?
Hottest month: July (95°F avg high). Coldest: December (38°F avg low). Annual precipitation: 12.1 in.
30-year climate normals (1991-2020) for Modesto from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. See methodology §15 for the gridded vs. station source path.
Average monthly highs & lows · 30-year normal (NOAA 1991–2020). Every number on this chart is an average.
bar = avg daily high → avg daily lowprecip in inches below each barprecip in millimeters below each bar
Composite risk score: 96.9/100 — Relatively High nationally; top hazard: Drought (99.8).
Natural-hazard exposure for Modesto from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (FEMA NRI December 2025 v1.20.0). NRI is an expected-annual-loss composite calibrated on 1996–2019 historical losses, published at the U.S. county grain. See methodology §17.
County
NRI composite
Rating
Top hazards
Stanislaus County
96.9
Relatively High
Drought 99.8 Very High · Earthquake 98.5 Relatively High · Heat Wave 96.3 Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index · FEMA NRI December 2025 v1.20.0 · methodology →
How fast is home internet in Modesto?
15 non-satellite ISPs serve the area; 76% of locations have gigabit-capable service per ISP filings.
Fixed broadband availability for Modesto from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's Broadband Data Collection (BDC), as of December 31, 2025. Every speed and provider count below is an ISP-reported advertised maximum — not measured throughput. Actual delivered speeds typically run 60–80% of advertised. See methodology §16.
Measure
Value
Note
Providers serving this city
15 + satellite
distinct ISPs, excluding satellite-only
Fiber providers
10
offer fiber-to-the-premises somewhere in the BDC
Units with ≥100/20 Mbps fixed
100.0%
share of broadband-serviceable units, ISP-reported max
Locations with ≥100 Mbps upload
76.3%
derived: max(fiber ≥100/20, gigabit). Fiber is symmetric; gigabit is ≥100 up by definition
Units with ≥1 Gbps fixed
76.3%
share of broadband-serviceable units, ISP-reported max
Total broadband-serviceable units
87,198
residential locations in the FCC Fabric (not households)
Source: FCC BDC · as of December 31, 2025 · methodology →
How much crime is reported in Modesto?
In 2024, law enforcement reported 1,436 violent and 5,288 property offenses in the Modesto jurisdiction — a violent-crime rate of 655.7 per 100,000, above the U.S. estimate of 359.1.
Reported offenses known to law enforcement from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program (CIUS Table 8), 2024. Figures describe the FBI agency jurisdiction: Modesto — an FBI jurisdiction population of 218,990, versus the Census place population of 219,652. The rate per 100,000 is the FBI's own (count ÷ that jurisdiction population), never divided by the Census place figure. These are reported crimes under voluntary participation — not measured or victimization crime — and the FBI cautions against using them to rank or compare places. See methodology §31.
Offenses known, 2024
Count
Rate /100k
U.S. rate
Violent crime
1,436
655.7
359.1
Property crime
5,288
2,414.7
1,760.1
▸Offense breakdown and 3-year trend
Offense, 2024
Count
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter
7
Rape
123
Robbery
248
Aggravated assault
1,058
Burglary
585
Larceny-theft
3,983
Motor vehicle theft
720
Arson (12-month reporters only)
126
Year
Violent /100k
Property /100k
Jurisdiction pop.
2022
761.8
2,402.7
219,083
2023
646.5
2,229.3
217,778
2024
655.7
2,414.7
218,990
Only years the agency reported a complete 12 months appear; the FBI does not estimate missing agency-years, so a gap is a non-reporting year, not zero crime.
U.S. rate is the FBI national estimate (imputes non-reporting agencies); the city figures are reported-only. Source: FBI UCR CIUS Table 8 (2022–2024) · FBI agency jurisdiction: Modesto · methodology → · FBI Crime Data Explorer →
In-state context.
Modesto sits at state rank #20 among 483 cities in California. Nearby in the state ranking:
Just above in the profiled set: Fontana, CA · #109 · 221,223 residents.
Just below in the profiled set: Salt Lake City, UT · #111 · 218,428 residents.
Quick travel facts for Modesto
Quick travel facts.
Elevation
88 ft · at city centroid, from USGS 3D Elevation Program
Nearest scheduled-service airport
Stockton Metropolitan Airport(SCK) · 22 mi 35 km from city centroid
Best months to visit
Oct · months when the avg high sits in 65–80°F and precipitation is at or below the city's median monthly precip
Sources: elevation from USGS 3DEP · nearest airport from OurAirports CSV (OurAirports type=large/medium and scheduled_service=yes; not an FAA service classification) · best months derived from NOAA 1991-2020 normals · methodology →
Frequently asked questions about Modesto.
How many people live in Modesto, CA?
Modesto has 219,652 residents as of July 1, 2025, making it the #110 largest city in the United States and #20 in California. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025.
Is Modesto growing or shrinking?
Modesto has grown 0.5% since the April 2020 census baseline, adding 1,167 residents. The most recent year ticked down slightly (−663 residents, −0.3% from 2024 to 2025). Source: Census PEP Vintage 2025.
Modesto covers 43.4 square miles of land, with a population density of about 5,066 residents per square mile. Source: Census Gazetteer 2025.
What is the median household income in Modesto?
$79,891, about 1% below the U.S. median. Source: ACS 5-year estimates, 2020–2024.
SourceU.S. Census · PEP
VintageV2025
Reference2025-07-01
Place typeIncorporated place
GEOID0648354
Last build2026-09-30
Sources · provenance
Every listed dataset is used on this page.
The GEOID for Modesto is 0648354. These are the official datasets used by this profile's main data modules; click "methodology" for inclusion rules and the V2019 ↔ V2025 seam, or "source" for the raw publisher page. The headline population value above includes a source-detail disclosure with publisher, dataset, vintage, native geography, transformation, and caveat.
